Risk assets continued their ascent during the third quarter.
SEI Forward: Third quarter 2025
Risk assets continued their ascent during the third quarter. Solid earnings and accommodative policies—both fiscal and monetary—were enough to overcome the hurdles of several tariff announcements and a deteriorating employment picture in the U.S. While artificial intelligence (AI) was once again a dominant theme, the rally broadened during the quarter to finally include U.S. small-cap stocks, which have lagged since the Liberation Day lows in early April. Emerging markets were boosted by the AI carryover into China, while European stocks failed to keep pace due to political turmoil and a stable U.S. dollar.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) joined the monetary easing party late in the quarter despite strong economic growth, stubborn inflation, and a stock market at or near all-time highs. Job growth was the final straw for policymakers as a massive downward data revision reset the employment picture and prompted the first 2025 rate cut in the U.S. While yields in the U.S. finished the quarter slightly lower, developed-market yields broadly rose over the past 3 months, particularly in Europe, on continued concerns of ballooning debt and political instability in France.
Geopolitics in general remained a pressure point for markets. Hopes for a resolution in the Russia/Ukraine conflict have been dashed, questions concerning President’s Trump’s firing of Fed Governor Cook remain unanswered, and the U.S. government inched closer to a shutdown. Gold was a prime beneficiary as these tailwinds, along with consistent demand from investors and central banks, helped the precious metal reach new highs.
Important information
Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual investment performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged, and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification may not protect against market risk.
This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. All information as of the date indicated. There are risks involved with investing, including possible loss of principal. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice, (unless you have otherwise separately entered into a written agreement with SEI for the provision of investment advice) nor should it be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell a security. The reader should consult with their financial professional for more information.
Statements that are not factual in nature, including opinions, projections and estimates, assume certain economic conditions and industry developments and constitute only current opinions that are subject to change without notice. Nothing herein is intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.
Certain economic and market information contained herein has been obtained from published sources prepared by other parties, which in certain cases have not been updated through the date hereof. While such sources are believed to be reliable, neither SEI nor its affiliates assumes any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information and such information has not been independently verified by SEI.
The information contained herein is for general and educational information purposes only and is not intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, securities, research or investment advice regarding the strategies or any security in particular, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. You should not act or rely on the information contained herein without obtaining specific legal, tax, accounting and investment advice from an investment professional.
The views contained herein are not to be taken as advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment in any jurisdiction. Our outlook contains forward-looking statements that are judgments based upon our current assumptions, beliefs, and expectations. If any of the factors underlying our current assumptions, beliefs or expectations change, our statements as to potential future events or outcomes may be incorrect. We undertake no obligation to update our forward-looking statements.
Information in the U.S. is provided by SEI Investments Management Corporation (SIMC), a wholly owned subsidiary of SEI Investments Company (SEI).
Information in Canada is provided by SEI Investments Canada Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of SEI Investments Company (SEI), and the Manager of the SEI Funds in Canada.