Geopolitics dominate the market news.

Global equities, as measured by the MSCI ACWI Index, gained ground in January 2026. Optimism regarding relatively strong corporate earnings offset geopolitical concerns and worries about U.S. trade policy. Emerging markets significantly outperformed developed markets for the month. 

Latin America was the strongest-performing emerging market in January, led by Colombia and Peru. Emerging Europe benefited from strength in Turkey and Hungary. Conversely, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) underperformed due to a downturn in Indonesia. The Pacific ex Japan region was the top performer among the developed markets in January due to strength in Australia and New Zealand. The upturn in the Far East region was attributable mainly to rallies in Hong Kong and Japan. The most notable developed-market laggard was North America due to relative weakness in the U.S.¹ 

Global fixed-income assets, as represented by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index, returned 0.9% (in U.S. dollars) in January. Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) led the U.S. fixed-income market, followed by high-yield bonds, investment-grade corporate bonds, and U.S. Treasury securities. Treasury yields moved modestly higher in all but the 1.5-month segment. (Bond prices move inversely to yields.) Yields on 2-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year Treasury notes rose by corresponding margins of 0.09%, 0.11%, 0.10%, and 0.08%, ending the month at 3.52%, 3.60%, 3.79%, and 4.26%, respectively. The 10-year to 3-month yield curve widened by 8 basis points (0.08%) to +0.59% as of January 31.² 

Global commodity prices, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, climbed 10.4% in January. The spot prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil surged 13.6% and 13.9%, respectively, during the month as Russia and Ukraine conducted drone attacks on energy and industrial facilities and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector, both of which stoked fears of potential supply disruption, as well as U.S. dollar weakness. (Oil prices typically move inversely to the U.S. dollar.) The gold price rose 9.3% for the month as investors sought safe-haven assets amid ongoing geopolitical concerns. The New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) natural gas price skyrocketed 39.1% in January. The rally was attributable mainly to a sharp increase in demand caused by a massive winter storm and unusually cold weather due to a strong Arctic air mass across much of the U.S.

On the geopolitical front, the Trump administration announced on January 3 that U.S. military forces invaded Venezuela and arrested President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on numerous charges, including cocaine importation conspiracy and possession of machine guns. On January 5, Maduro and Flores pleaded not guilty to the charges in U.S. federal court in New York. The administration subsequently revealed that the Venezuelan government agreed to provide the U.S. with between 30 and 50 million barrels of oil. In a social media post, Trump wrote, “This Oil will be sold at its Market Price, and that money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States!” 

Greenland, as autonomous territory of Denmark, took the spotlight later in the month. In a social media post on January 17, Trump announced that the U.S. government would impose a 10% tariff on imported goods from several European countries opposing his bid to take control of Greenland, including Denmark, Norway, Sweden, the U.K., France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Finland. The new levies would take effect on February 1, and would rise to 25% in June if a deal were not reached “for the complete and total purchase of Greenland.” His comments raised fears in Europe that the U.S. would attempt to take Greenland by force if Denmark did not agree to a sale, leading to a selloff in global equity markets on January 20. In an address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on January 21, Trump said that the U.S. would seek to acquire Greenland via negotiations, not force, citing national security needs. He criticized European government leaders and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), calling Denmark “ungrateful.” Later that day, Trump reversed course, indicating that he would not assess the tariffs because he had reached a “framework of a future deal” with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte for Greenland and the “entire Arctic region.” Trump’s comments prompted a relief rally in the U.S. stock market.

¹ All equity market performance statements are based on the MSCI ACWI Index. 

² According to the U.S. Department of the Treasury. As of January 31, 2026.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION 

This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding SEI’s portfolios or any stock in particular, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell a security, including futures contracts