Stocks rise despite U.S. trade policy concerns.
Our monthly market commentary for July 2025.
Stocks trade up despite looming tariff concerns
Economic backdrop.
Global equities, as measured by the MSCI ACWI Index, gained ground in July. Investors were encouraged by some clarity on U.S. trade policy before uncertainty resurfaced toward the end of the month. Generally positive corporate earnings reports also bolstered the markets. Emerging markets outperformed developed markets in July, led by Jordan, Egypt, and Morocco. Chinese stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange also performed well. Latin America recorded a negative return and was the most notable market laggard for the month. North America was the top performer within the developed markets in July due mainly to strength in the U.S. Additionally, the Pacific ex Japan region benefited from market upturns in Hong Kong and Singapore. In contrast, the Nordic countries were hampered by weakness in Denmark and Norway. The slump in European Union stocks for the month was attributable to a market downturn in the Netherlands.1
Global fixed-income assets, as represented by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index, declined 1.5% (in U.S. dollars) in July. High-yield bonds led the U.S. fixed-income market, followed by investment-grade corporate bonds. Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and U.S. Treasurys registered losses during the month. U.S. Treasury yields moved higher across the yield curve, with the exception of the 3-month segment, which was flat. Yields on 2-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year Treasury notes rose by corresponding margins of 0.22%, 0.21%, 0.17%, and 0.13% to 3.94%, 3.89%, 3.96%, and 4.37%, respectively. The yield curve remained inverted (3-month yields exceeded 10-year yields) during the month.2
Global commodity prices, as represented by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, were down 0.5% in July. Spot prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil climbed 6.4% and 7.4%, respectively, in July due to ongoing geopolitical tensions regarding the Israel-Iran military conflict in the Middle East, as well as strong demand from emerging markets, particularly Asia and Latin America. The geopolitical tensions also contributed to the 1.2% rise in the gold price for the month as investors sought safe-haven assets. The 11.0% decline in the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) natural gas price was attributable to softer demand due to reduced industrial activity in several major global economies and rising inventories in the U.S. The wheat price fell 2.8% in July amid concerns about potential trade deals and the possibility of new tariffs.
1 All equity market performance statements are based on the MSCI ACWI Index.
2 According to the U.S. Department of the Treasury. As of June 30, 2025.
3 According to the ONS. July 16, 2025.
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