Investors deal with inflated expectations

Following strong performance to start the year, most global equity markets reversed direction in February. Investors were concerned that ongoing inflationary pressures, including stronger-than-expected labor market data, would prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and other major central banks to extend their interest rate-hiking cycles. Developed-market equities saw less significant declines than their emerging-market counterparts during the month. Europe was the strongest performer within both the developed and emerging markets in February. Conversely, North America was the weakest-performing developed market, with Canada trailing the U.S. Among emerging markets, Asia was the primary laggard due mainly to weakness in China. Latin America stocks also recorded sizeable losses, most notably in Brazil.

U.S. fixed-income assets posted losses in February as bond yields rose across the U.S. Treasury yield curve (yields and prices have an inverse relationship). High-yield bonds saw the smallest declines and were the top performers for the month, followed by U.S. Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities (MBS).2 Corporate bonds were the primary fixed-income market laggards in February.3 The increase in Treasury yields during the month was most pronounced in the two-, three- and five-year segments of the curve. The spread between two- and ten-year notes increased 0.20% over the month, further inverting the yield curve.

Prices in the global commodities markets generally lost ground in February. The West Texas Intermediate crude-oil spot price decreased 2.3%, while Brent crude oil fell 2.4% amid concerns that additional interest-rate hikes from central banks will weigh on global economic growth and reduce demand. The NYMEX natural gas price climbed 6.7% during the month, bolstered by the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s report of a greater-than-expected decline in inventories during the week ending February 20. Natural gas prices had fallen steadily since mid-December of last year as an unusually mild winter in the U.S. continued to weigh on demand during the winter home-heating season. The gold spot price was down 5.6% in February amid investors’ worries that the Fed’s rate hikes may lead to a recession in the U.S., which would hamper demand for precious metals. Wheat prices fell 7.3% in February as Egypt made a large purchase tender for Russian wheat at a relatively low price. Russia reduced its prices in a bid to undercut those of other wheat-exporting countries.⁴

1. All equity market performance statements are based on the MSCI All-Country World Index (ACWI).

2. According to the ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Constrained, ICE BofA U.S. Treasury and S&P U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities indexes.

3. According to the ICE BofA U.S. Corporate Index.

4. According to market data from The Wall Street Journal.

Disclosures

This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice regarding SEI’s portfolios or any stock in particular, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell a security, including futures contracts.

There are risks involved with investing, including loss of principal. International investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability in other nations. Emerging markets involve heightened risks related to the same factors as well as increased volatility and lower trading volume. Narrowly focused investments and smaller companies typically exhibit higher volatility. Bonds and bond funds will decrease in value as interest rates rise. High-yield bonds involve greater risks of default or downgrade and are more volatile than investment-grade securities, due to the speculative nature of their investments.

Diversification may not protect against market risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual portfolio performance. Index returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. One cannot invest directly in an index.

Information provided by SEI Investments Management Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of SEI Investments Company (SEI).