Skip to main content

Perspectives économiques : atterrissage en douceur ou récession ?

juillet 25, 2022
clock 5 MIN LIRE

View transcript

Close transcript

[ Atterrissage en douceur ou récession ? ]

- Bonjour, je m'appelle Heather Corkery, directrice générale de la gestion de portefeuille client chez SEI. Aujourd'hui, je me trouve en compagnie du stratège en chef du marché et gestionnaire de portefeuille principal, Jim Solloway, pour vous donner un aperçu rapide de l'un des sujets d'actualité qu'il aborde dans nos plus récentes perspectives économiques. Jim, le président de la Réserve fédérale Jerome Powell exprime toujours l'espoir que la Fed puisse atteindre un atterrissage en douceur, probablement lorsque l'inflation décélère progressivement pour revenir à l'objectif de 2 % de la banque centrale, et ceci, sans récession. Nous espérons certainement qu'il atteindra cet objectif. Mais croyez-vous que c'est réaliste ?

- Le bilan historique n'est pas prometteur. Sur la base de nos données d'analyse de l'Institut de recherche sur les cycles économiques et du Bureau américain des statistiques du travail, il n'y a eu qu'un seul cas de réussite depuis la fin de la seconde guerre mondiale, entre 1951 et 1952, où l'inflation a dépassé les 5 %. Les contrats à terme sur les taux des fonds fédéraux indiquent que les investisseurs anticipent une série de hausses entre maintenant et la fin de l'année, ce qui porterait le taux des fonds entre 3,25 % et 3,5 %. Les marchés anticipent vraisemblablement une récession d'ici la mi-2023, si l'on considère que les contrats à terme sur les fonds commencent à baisser à ce moment-là. Le résultat réel dépendra de la rapidité avec laquelle l'économie s'affaiblit et que l'inflation diminue.

- Au trimestre dernier, vous nous avez dit que vous pensiez que l'économie américaine pourrait montrer une résilience qui surprendrait à la fois la Fed et les investisseurs. Pensez-vous que c'est toujours possible ?

- Je continue de le penser. Il est indéniable que la hausse des taux d'intérêt ralentira la croissance économique, mais les changements de politique monétaire affectent l'économie avec un décalage long et variable. Alors que la force financière des entreprises et des ménages américains est susceptible de diminuer, le point de départ est très élevé.

- Merci, Jim. Lisez nos dernières perspectives économiques et voyez notre conversation plus étendue où nous abordons certains des points positifs du paysage économique, ainsi que les risques, les défis et l'incertitude auxquels les investisseurs sont confrontés aujourd'hui.

Renseignements importants

This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. Positioning and holdings are subject to change. All information as of the date indicated. There are risks involved with investing, including possible loss of principal. This information should not be relied upon by the reader as research or investment advice, (unless you have otherwise separately entered into a written agreement with SEI for the provision of investment advice) nor should it be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell a security. The reader should consult with their financial professional for more information.

Statements that are not factual in nature, including opinions, projections and estimates, assume certain economic conditions and industry developments and constitute only current opinions that are subject to change without notice. Nothing herein is intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results.

Certain economic and market information contained herein has been obtained from published sources prepared by other parties, which in certain cases have not been updated through the date hereof. While such sources are believed to be reliable, neither SEI nor its affiliates assumes any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information and such information has not been independently verified by SEI.

There are risks involved with investing, including loss of principal. The value of an investment and any income from it can go down as well as up. Investors may get back less than the original amount invested. Returns may increase or decrease as a result of currency fluctuations. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Investment may not be suitable for everyone.

This material is not directed to any persons where (by reason of that person's nationality, residence or otherwise) the publication or availability of this material is prohibited. Persons in respect of whom such prohibitions apply must not rely on this information in any respect whatsoever.

The information contained herein is for general and educational information purposes only and is not intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, securities, research or investment advice regarding the strategies or any security in particular, nor an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. This information should not be construed as a recommendation to purchase or sell a security, derivative or futures contract. You should not act or rely on the information contained herein without obtaining specific legal, tax, accounting and investment advice from an investment professional.

Information in the U.S. is provided by SEI Investments Management Corporation (SIMC), a wholly owned subsidiary of SEI Investments Company (SEI).

Information provided in Canada by SEI Investments Canada Company, the Manager of the SEI Funds in Canada.

Information issued in the UK by SEI Investments (Europe) Limited, 1st Floor, Alphabeta, 14-18 Finsbury Square, London EC2A 1BR which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Investments in SEI Funds are generally medium- to long-term investments.

SIEL has appointed SEI Investments (Asia) Limited (SEIAL) of Suite 904, The Hong Kong Club Building, 3 Jackson Road, Central, Hong Kong as the sub-distributor of the SEI UCITS funds. SEIAL is licensed for Type 4 and 9 regulated activities under the Securities and Futures Commission ("SFC")

This information is being made available in Hong Kong by SEIAL. The contents of this document have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. You are advised to exercise caution in relation to the offer. If you are in any doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice.

This information is made available in Latin America and the Middle East FOR PROFESSIONAL (non-retail) USE ONLY by SIEL.

SIEL is not licensed under Israel’s Regulation of Investment Advising, Investment Marketing and Portfolio Management Law, 5755-1995 (the “Advice Law”) and does not carry insurance pursuant to the Advice Law. No action has been or will be taken in Israel that would permit a public offering or distribution of the SEI Funds mentioned in this email to the public in Israel.

Any questions you may have in relation to its contents should solely be directed to your Distributor. If you do not know who your Distributor is, then you cannot rely on any part of this document in any respect whatsoever.

Issued in South Africa by SEI Investments (South Africa) (Pty) Limited FSP No. 13186 which is a financial services provider authorised and regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA). Registered office: 3 Melrose Boulevard, 1st Floor, Melrose Arch 2196, Johannesburg, South Africa.

Our perspectives on industry challenges and opportunities.