Market Update

09 October 2009 by SEI Investment Management Unit

 

The Economy

  • A few bright spots emerged despite concerns that the global recovery has stalled.
  • U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated that the Fed is ready to remove accommodative efforts (such as low interest rates and purchasing programs) when necessary.
  • The Australian central bank raised its overnight cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, becoming the first G-20 nation to tighten interest rates after the global downturn.
  • In the U.K., the price of factory goods rose 0.5% from August, which was better than forecast.
  • The U.S. Institute for Supply Management’s Non-Manufacturing Index posted stronger-than-expected numbers, showing expansion for the first time in a year. As this accounts for 90% of the economic output, it was an encouraging sign.
  • U.S. jobless claims showed the largest decrease since January, and continuing claims also fell.
  • Sterling fell against the dollar on speculation the UK economy remains too weak for the central bank to consider raising rates.
  • The U.S. dollar fell to a 14-month low at the end of the week, following a sharp decline earlier in the week when it was reported that China and Arab nations are working with France and Russia to re-price oil against a basket of securities instead of the dollar.
  • While we’re glad to see some good news, we don’t view it as a sign that all is well, but rather as a smooth patch in what we expect will be a long and bumpy ride on the slow road to recovery.

Stocks

  • Global markets rose higher as risk appetite increased.
  • U.S. equity markets edged higher on improving economic news and some strong third-quarter earnings.
  • European stocks had their steepest weekly advance since July.
  • For the U.S., U.K. and Europe, value stocks outperformed their growth counterparts, and small-cap stocks outperformed their large-cap brethren.
  • Investors increased their risk tolerance by investing cash in assets perceived to be riskier, which was partially evident from the decline of the U.S. dollar.
  • In the U.S., Energy and Materials stocks rose higher as the dollar weakened.
  • Globally, cyclical stocks (which are more sensitive to movements of the broader market) such as Materials also had a strong week.

Bonds

  • Major government bond yields rose across the globe; gains were added after the Fed suggested rates would rise when the U.S. economy had “improved sufficiently.”
  • Non-government bond sectors also posted positive returns, and the difference between these yields and government bond yields narrowed.
  • Riskier areas of the fixed-income markets led gains amid strong demand from investors looking for extra yield from taking on added risk.
  • Emerging-market debt and commercial mortgage-backed securities (which are made up of multiple commercial mortgages packaged into a single security) performed best, and corporate and high-yield bonds showed strong performance as well.

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SEI sources data directly from the following vendors: Factset, MSCI Barra, Russell, TOPIX, FTSE, Barclays Capital and Merrill Lynch. Where appropriate, returns in base currencies are converted to the relevant currency using WM Reuters 4pm Spot rates.