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Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager, Equities Team, Investment Management Unit
Monthly Market Commentary - October 2014Nov182014Article
Fixed-income and equity markets remained volatile but generally performed better than in September.
The Risks of "Star" SearchingNov52014Article
Keeping Market Volatility in PerspectiveOct172014Article
Recent weeks have been challenging for investors, as economic uncertainty and a steady flow of negative news headlines have caused volatility and anxiety to rise considerably. SEI believes it is important for long-term investors to be patient when faced with panic-inducing headlines. If investment time horizons are measured in years, it does no good to worry about day-to-day reports of doom and gloom. As today’s global crises run their course, we believe an investor’s best defenses include a level head and a diversified portfolio.
Investment Fundamentals: Don't Sell Your BondsOct142014Article
When faced with the possibility of a market-value decline, many investors are quick to react by reducing or eliminating assets—both equities and bonds—that are at risk.
Canadian Equity Markets: Less Volatile Than You Might ThinkOct102014Article
A New Chapter Begins - Economic Outlook Third Quarter 2014Oct82014Article
Behavioural Finance: Loss and Regret AversionSep252014Article
Here we address loss aversion - a behavioural phenomenon central to the development of Kahneman and Tversky’s Prospect Theory - and regret aversion, which drives investors to make inferior decisions through passive behaviour.
Monthly Market Commentary - August 2014Sep122014Article
Fixed-income and equity markets fared better in August than during the prior month. Corporate bonds led other fixed-income segments and the Americas outpaced other regions for equity performance. Even with somewhat elevated developed-market equity valuations and narrow credit spreads, we see room for markets to move higher and would be inclined to buy on a correction.
Behavioral Finance: The Three A's - Availability, Anchoring, and AdjustmentAug302014Article
In our last paper, we explored the biases inherent to heuristics. Now we explore availability, anchoring, and adjustment - shortcuts that are rooted in investor's inclination to project their current frame of reference on situations that are not applicable.
Japan: Value Trap or OpportunityJul282014Article
Japanese equity markets have stalled following a strong rally in 2013. The short-term outlook for Japanese equities is generally positive, but faces challenges. We are optimistic on the long-term prospects for Japan and are evaluating the opportunities.
The Ongoing Conflict in Eastern UkraineJul232014Article
The situation in eastern Ukraine has continued to deteriorate, and resolution remains a long way off. It’s not yet clear if the recent downing of a civilian aircraft will serve to escalate or de-escalate the conflict. Our Funds remain well diversified, and both SEI and its managers are watching developments closely.
Behavioural Finance: Rules of Thumb and RepresentativenessJul162014Article
In Behavioural Finance: An Introduction to Human Error, we noted that Kahneman and Tversky were smart academics who found many ideas for their social science experiments in the mistakes that they themselves made as well as the mistakes that their intelligent colleagues and subjects made. Kahneman and Tversky noted some rules of thumb that often lead investors astray.
Economic Outlook: And the Music Plays OnJul112014Article
Equity markets are sitting at record highs and bond markets continue to defy gravity. The big question should be obvious: how much longer can it last?
While developed market equity valuations are somewhat elevated and credit spreads narrow, we think it’s premature to adopt a strongly defensive investment stance. The global economy continues its slow recovery process, and there has rarely been a time when the world’s central banks have been as active in their efforts to support economic recovery and growth as they are presently.
Second Quarter 2014 Market and Performance UpdateJul112014Article
Uneven worldwide economic growth has resulted in global monetary policy at various stages of ebb and flow. Global inflation pressures may begin to weigh on accommodative central banking. Most developed-market equities continue to see earnings growth. A turnaround in Europe is one of the keys to global market performance in the months ahead.
April 2014 Monthly Market CommentaryMay122014Article
Economic growth remains mixed across the globe, and inflation was tame in most regions. Most major bond markets—U.S., Canada, U.K., Japan and the eurozone—experienced a modest decrease in government bond yields. Global equity markets showed impressive resiliency and were again positive. While global equity markets have not been as robust early in 2014 as they were last year, we believe they have held up quite well in the face of political tensions and emerging-market growth concerns.
First Quarter 2014 Market and Performance UpdateApr82014Article
Optimism continued in advanced economies, while emerging economies faced multiple challenges. Easing of inflation pressures around the world should keep global monetary policies accommodative. Global equities reached positive territory by quarter end, while fixed income gained as interest rates generally fell.
An Economic Thaw, but a New Cold WarApr72014Article
Global stock markets bounced higher following a brief dip in the latter part of January, with the U.S. leading the way. The ability of equities to quickly overcome periodic stumbles (in the U.S. and other developed markets, at least) underscores investors’ willingness to assume risk even when economic and geopolitical uncertainties are on the rise. The fact that developed market equity pullbacks remain brief and shallow suggests that the rotation out of cash and fixed-income assets and into stocks is still very much in play.
February 2014 Monthly Market CommentaryMar112014Article
Economic data remained mixed in the U.S., despite some positive forward-looking indicators. Ongoing strength was seen in the U.K. and Japan, along with pockets of both resilience and weakness in Europe. Global bond yields were generally steady in the month following a resetting of levels in January. Global equity markets strongly rebounded as investor optimism was particularly strong across European markets.With positive economic growth in Europe and solid earnings reports from U.S. companies, there is plenty of optimism that 2014 will be a decent year.
January 2014 Monthly Market CommentaryFeb72014Article
The monetary policies of global central banks remain accommodative and are expected to continue as such, while global growth builds momentum. Concerns related to the U.S. Federal Reserve tapering of bond purchases, sustainability of corporate profits and Chinese output resulted in a pullback in global equities, while global fixed income gained. SEI does not believe the elements of a more serious equity bear market are in place. The most important drivers of stock-market performance in our framework are still flashing neutral-to-positive signals.
Concerns surrounding the pace of Chinese growth, the impact of reduced quantitative-easing stimulus and the health of corporate earnings culminated in a sudden shift of investor sentiment last week. SEI is maintaining its favorable view of emerging equities, as we believe catalysts will materialize that should improve the outlook for the asset class. While emerging and developed equities have struggled out of the gate in 2014, we do not believe the elements of a more serious equity bear market are in place.