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Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager, Equities Team, Investment Management Unit
Volatility Heightens: Third Quarter 2015 Market CommentaryOct62015Article
The third quarter was marked by heightened volatility and a spate of interventions by the Chinese government. Fixed-income market performance was mixed, with wide performance dispersion between “safe-haven” and risk assets.
Do Something! Volatility and the Urge to Take ActionSep212015Article
Despite the recent market activity, knee-jerk reactions and wholesale portfolio changes are often poor choices.
Canadian Equities: The Good, the Bad...the Opportunity?Aug312015Article
Global equities are correcting, but Canadian equities have already corrected and are now outperforming.
China Sneezed. Will the Rest of the World Catch a Cold?Aug252015Article
Turmoil is revealing a mixed outlook for global growth pockets of strength and weakness in emerging markets.
Commodity-producing economies and those with close ties to China are struggling.
Investors Remain in a Whirlwind: July Market CommentaryAug192015Article
The whirlwind was centered primarily on mainland Chinese equity-market volatility, the shutdown of the Greek banking system as the latest stage of the country’s debt crisis culminated in a new bailout, and concerns over a municipal-debt default in Puerto Rico.
China: Will the Year of the Goat Become the Year of the Bear?Jul202015Article
After being overshadowed by Greece and the eurozone for several weeks, a steep crash in China’s domestic stock markets is finally coming into sharper focus.
Reaping the Whirlwind: Second Quarter Economic OutlookJul172015Article
In our current environment, we expect the global economy to gain traction, which should provide a tailwind to equity markets, even in those countries further along in their business cycles and facing rising interest-rates.
Subdued Central Bank Activity Notable During Second QuarterJul102015Article
Investors were caught up in a whirlwind this quarter, which included both volatility and surprising countertrend movements—ranging from German bunds to Chinese equities, currencies to the price of oil
Greece: Containment More Likely than ContagionJun292015Article
The Greek government threw a wrench into official negotiations by calling a referendum on bailout conditions and imposing bank closures and capital controls. As a result, the likelihood of Greece having to leave the eurozone has increased, boosting market volatility. Whatever the outcome, it is likely to be messy; but economic and market effects should be fairly well contained, in our view.
Major Central Banks are Accommodative for Longer: May 2015 Monthly CommentaryJun152015Article
"Accommodative for longer” appeared to be the consensus policy among major central banks in May.
Another Milestone for China's Financial System...EventuallyJun92015Article
For several decades, China’s financial system has played the tortoise to the economy’s hare. That may start to change, given maturation of the country’s economy and accelerating reforms of its financial system, including stock markets. In response, investors (SEI included) and index providers are paying close attention to current and future developments.
Major Central Banks Hold Their Bearings: April Monthly Market CommentaryMay82015Article
Major central banks held their bearings amid tight elections in the U.K., debt-crisis brinksmanship in the eurozone, weak first-quarter economic growth in the U.S., and disinflation in Japan. Equity and fixed-income markets generally performed well as risk assets benefitted from favourable conditions.
Investment Fundamentals: Oil Price BenchmarksApr302015Article
A steady decline in crude oil prices began in the summer of 2014, bringing the Brent and WTI oil benchmarks to the forefront of daily news. The current oversupply of oil has caused prices on both benchmarks to fall by about 50 percent.
Behavioural Finance: Controlled Thinking and NeuroeconomicsApr102015Article
Many investors have made mistakes, and later asked themselves, “What was I thinking?” Behavioural research suggests we should also consider "how" we were thinking. Neuroeconomics seeks to understand the financial mind.
Diversification: The Perils of NearsightednessMar122015Article
Regardless of an investor’s level of risk tolerance, we will not allow short-term historical performance to fool us into abandoning our philosophy of diversification.
Continued Easing of Global Central Bank Interest-rate Policies - February 2015 CommentaryMar112015Article
No specific easing measures were introduced among major central banks during the month
Behavioural Finance: Confirmation Bias, Cognitive Dissonance, and RecencyFeb272015Article
In this segment of our Behavioural Finance series, we will examine confirmation bias, cognitive dissonance and recency, additional behaviors that may lead us to make investment mistakes.
Investment Fundamentals: DiversificationFeb132015Article
They say variety is the spice of life. But when it comes to investing, variety can be a key to long-term success. But just what does diversification mean? And why might it be beneficial?
Mixed Fixed-Income Performance: January 2015 Monthly Market CommentaryFeb112015Article
Central bank policies remained divergent in early 2015, as low inflation and slow labor-market gains were further complicated by different stages of economic recovery. Fixed-income market performance was mostly positive, led by U.S. dollar-denominated debt; local-currency debt was marginally negative.
Staying Optimistic - Despite All the Good NewsJan62015Article
Amidst slow but mostly positive economic growth, an historic decline in oil prices, near-zero interest rates and the ardent pursuit of unconventional monetary policies by the world’s most important central banks, it is tempting to be clever and assume that the bull market is in jeopardy: If everyone is bullish who’s left to buy?
Behavioural Finance: Optimism and OverconfidenceJan52015Article
In this next installment, we discuss K&T’s research of human decision-making processes which are distorted by inherent biases toward optimism and overconfidence. These subjective perceptions, when present to a significant degree in the financial decision-making process, can result in miscalculating the value of an opportunity.
Varying Degrees of Economic Strength in November 2014Dec122014Article
According to Statistics Canada, the Canadian economy bounced back from a weak August, expanding in September and .7% for the third quarter.
Oil Gums up the MarketDec112014Article
Behavioural Finance: Loss and Regret AversionSep252014Article
Here we address loss aversion - a behavioural phenomenon central to the development of Kahneman and Tversky’s Prospect Theory - and regret aversion, which drives investors to make inferior decisions through passive behaviour.
Behavioral Finance: The Three A's - Availability, Anchoring, and AdjustmentAug302014Article
In our last paper, we explored the biases inherent to heuristics. Now we explore availability, anchoring, and adjustment - shortcuts that are rooted in investor's inclination to project their current frame of reference on situations that are not applicable.