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Below are materials from SEI's Investment Management Unit. For industry-specific thought leadership, please visit the following sections:
Vice President and Senior Portfolio Manager, Equities Team, Investment Management Unit
Brexit Remains UnlikelyApr272016Article
A Brexit bears monitoring, but we have not taken positions in funds or made asset allocation changes.
Quarterly Market Commentary: V is for VolatilityApr132016Article
A first-half selloff and second-half recovery provided historical milestones for government bonds, oil prices and stock markets in the first quarter.
Economic Outlook: Markets Stop, Drop, Roll and ReboundApr52016Article
Despite the dramatic equity market selloff and recovery during the first quarter, we continue to believe that a global recession remains unlikely. We expect central banks (including the Fed), to continue their stimulus efforts and the global economy to grind higher as a result.
Negative Interest Rates: A Central Bank Policy ToolMar212016Article
Negative rates are largely a concern for investors in certain European and Japanese asset classes. Accordingly, we see no reason to change either our strategic (long-term) or tactical (short-term) asset allocation targets in response to the small number of central banks implementing negative policy-rate targets.
Commodities: Be Patient, We Expect it Will Get BetterMar162016Article
As the impact of lower prices filters through the production side, we may see a modest recovery in commodity prices this year.
February Commentary: A Tale of Two HalvesMar42016Article
The volatility of the past year and the pain felt in certain asset classes reminds us more of the 2011 experience than the calamitous tumult of 2008.
New Year: Off to a Rocky StartJan192016Article
The New Year got off to a rocky start as investors digested falling equity markets, further declines in the price of oil, heightened concerns over China’s economic stability and rising geopolitical tensions. The widely expected “January effect" on risk assets seems to be skipping markets this year. In our view, this recent market activity reflects several long-term market transitions that we expect to play out across the globe in 2016 and beyond.
More on that Uncertainty We MentionedJan152016Article
The current volatility is unsettling to say the least, we remain positioned for the latter stages of a U.S. equity-market expansion and sees opportunity for long-term investors.
Fourth Quarter Market CommentaryJan132016Article
The fourth quarter saw an escalation in geopolitical strains, deepened distress in the oil patch and long-anticipated follow through by the U.S. FOMC.
More of the Same in 2016, with a Little Less CertaintyJan82016Article
The more things change, the more they stay the same. As investors enter 2016, they are facing as many uncertainties as last year — perhaps more. Despite that, we will give risk assets the benefit of the doubt until central banks begin to pursue tighter money policies that raise interest rates to much higher levels.
Do Something! Volatility and the Urge to Take ActionSep212015Article
Despite the recent market activity, knee-jerk reactions and wholesale portfolio changes are often poor choices.
China Sneezed. Will the Rest of the World Catch a Cold?Aug252015Article
Turmoil is revealing a mixed outlook for global growth pockets of strength and weakness in emerging markets.
Commodity-producing economies and those with close ties to China are struggling.
Investors Remain in a Whirlwind: July Market CommentaryAug192015Article
The whirlwind was centered primarily on mainland Chinese equity-market volatility, the shutdown of the Greek banking system as the latest stage of the country’s debt crisis culminated in a new bailout, and concerns over a municipal-debt default in Puerto Rico.
Subdued Central Bank Activity Notable During Second QuarterJul102015Article
Investors were caught up in a whirlwind this quarter, which included both volatility and surprising countertrend movements—ranging from German bunds to Chinese equities, currencies to the price of oil
Major Central Banks are Accommodative for Longer: May 2015 Monthly CommentaryJun152015Article
"Accommodative for longer” appeared to be the consensus policy among major central banks in May.
Investment Fundamentals: Oil Price BenchmarksApr302015Article
A steady decline in crude oil prices began in the summer of 2014, bringing the Brent and WTI oil benchmarks to the forefront of daily news. The current oversupply of oil has caused prices on both benchmarks to fall by about 50 percent.
Behavioural Finance: Controlled Thinking and NeuroeconomicsApr102015Article
Many investors have made mistakes, and later asked themselves, “What was I thinking?” Behavioural research suggests we should also consider "how" we were thinking. Neuroeconomics seeks to understand the financial mind.
Diversification: The Perils of NearsightednessMar122015Article
Regardless of an investor’s level of risk tolerance, we will not allow short-term historical performance to fool us into abandoning our philosophy of diversification.
Behavioural Finance: Confirmation Bias, Cognitive Dissonance, and RecencyFeb272015Article
In this segment of our Behavioural Finance series, we will examine confirmation bias, cognitive dissonance and recency, additional behaviors that may lead us to make investment mistakes.
Investment Fundamentals: DiversificationFeb132015Article
They say variety is the spice of life. But when it comes to investing, variety can be a key to long-term success. But just what does diversification mean? And why might it be beneficial?
Behavioural Finance: Optimism and OverconfidenceJan52015Article
In this next installment, we discuss K&T’s research of human decision-making processes which are distorted by inherent biases toward optimism and overconfidence. These subjective perceptions, when present to a significant degree in the financial decision-making process, can result in miscalculating the value of an opportunity.
Behavioural Finance: Loss and Regret AversionSep252014Article
Here we address loss aversion - a behavioural phenomenon central to the development of Kahneman and Tversky’s Prospect Theory - and regret aversion, which drives investors to make inferior decisions through passive behaviour.
Behavioural Finance: The Three A's - Availability, Anchoring, and AdjustmentAug302014Article
In our last paper, we explored the biases inherent to heuristics. Now we explore availability, anchoring, and adjustment - shortcuts that are rooted in investor's inclination to project their current frame of reference on situations that are not applicable.
Behavioural Finance: Rules of Thumb and RepresentativenessJul162014Article
In Behavioural Finance: An Introduction to Human Error, we noted that Kahneman and Tversky were smart academics who found many ideas for their social science experiments in the mistakes that they themselves made as well as the mistakes that their intelligent colleagues and subjects made. Kahneman and Tversky noted some rules of thumb that often lead investors astray.
Presidential Elections and the Stock MarketOct272008Article
As volatile as the markets and economy have been, investors wonder what a victory for either candidate might mean to them financially. While that is nearly impossible to predict with any sense of certainty, history can tell us a great deal about how the equity markets have reacted post election.